The Culture War

"I just wish there wasn't so much hate and divisiveness on the internet these days"

This is a take I've been seeing a lot of lately. It's not wrong, but I think that this idea could use some analysis. There are several factions at war in our cultural space, and I think that people could benefit from some added clarity about what's going on.

I apologize in advance for using the word "woke." I hate it, but I don't see a better descriptor, and "intersectional feminism" is more the philosophy and not the coalition.

The Factions

We can clearly see the conflict that's happening in our broader culture.  There are three cultural super blobs engaged in conflict here; the Woke Monoculture, the MAGA Tribe, and the Neoliberal Consensus. Let's talk about each of these in neutral terms.

The Woke Monoculture is an alliance between several factions under the flag of Intersectional Feminism. It includes several minority groups, the queers, the far left, and progressive/liberal allies. Some of these bonds are stronger than others. The progressives/liberals currently enjoy a lot more political power than the rest, as they still share strong bonds with the Neoliberals. This causes tension when they are forced to make actual policy choices between their two loyalties. Their goals are: gaining political power, dismantling the systemic opposition of its core constituents, creating support networks for people in need, creating non-exploitative labor and goods markets, and changing cultural moral standards to reflect human diversity.

The MAGA Tribe is an alliance between fiscal conservatives and white neo-confederate evangelicals under a unifying cult of personality named Donald Trump. The coalition came into existence because Trump was able to use once-taboo neo-confederate language to appeal to an underground culture of white supremacy, while enjoying total immunity to the resulting shame from the media. His platform was clearly pro-business, so the fiscal conservatives had no reason to oppose him. Their goals are: maintaining power, maintaining and celebrating hierarchies as a fundamental good, entrenching wealth & white men's power in society (ayn rand/the cowboy myth), moving race relations and gender roles back to before Civil Rights, and restoring the moral authority of the Evangelical Christian church.

The Neoliberal Consensus is what formed in the 1980s out of the ashes of the New Deal Coalition and the Northeast Republicans. Its followers believe in free trade, laissez faire Capitalism, race-blindness, and economic colonialism. It has been the basis for governmental cooperation since the Reagan administration. Every president since then has promoted these values, until Trump. They thrive on playing the "liberal vs conservative game" as political theater. Their goals are: maintaining the status quo, keeping the USA's position as the world's sole superpower, defending America's economic colonialism from Chinese interests, balancing the system to make sure that large corporations keep bringing in large profits for investors, and reducing the power, reach, and effectiveness of labor unions.

None of these groups have a majority. Each group is engaged in outreach to unaligned folks. One through engagement and outreach, another through mockery and fueling racial hatred, and another through appeals to the status quo and civility.

The Game As It Stands

We are now entering the home stretch of 2016 Round Two. We have similar candidates, and we're fighting over same policies as we did last time. The main differences this time are tactics and the evolutions of each coalition.

The State of MAGA

The MAGA Tribe peaked in 2016 by exploiting a rift between the Neoliberal Consensus and the proto-Woke Monoculture. Hillary Clinton is a powerful Neoliberal with a boatload of personal and political drama. She demonstrated that being a woman does not make you unproblematic, and the MAGA people sang of her personal failings to a fever pitch. Trump won because he positioned himself as "not Hillary Clinton." This is especially worrying since the Neoliberals are now running Joe Biden, one of their own with the same amount of personal baggage, for president.

Since 2016, they've been in decline as they've built up an ever-stronger media bubble that insulates them from directly observing reality. They've slid further and further to the political Right while they think they're standing still. This is due to the fact that their dear leader is actively engaged in his own cult of personality. In order to deflect from his own personal failures, he creates a new reality where they are all on purpose. They also haven't been able to stop a contingent from falling into extreme conspiracies a la QAnon.

Facebook remains a powerful organizing tool for their older members, and the younger members have embraced even more insular social networks for their organizations, making them simultaneously less able to recruit new members and also much easier to infiltrate.

Their 2020 strategy seems to be repeating exactly what worked in 2016, without much deviation. Any lessons learned from 2016 will be very useful.

The Rise of Wokeness

The Woke Monoculture didn't really coalesce until after the 2016 election. They are currently demonstrating their power with the BLM protests across this country; the largest protest in US history in terms of numbers. There have also been a lot of teething problems. Specifically, working across old cultural fault lines has been challenging, and there's a lot of disagreement about strategy. The election of AOC, Rashida Tlaib, and Ayanna Pressley was a very encouraging first step in the right direction. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a significant strengthening of inter-cultural bonds. Specifically, a lot more white liberals are listening to Black feminists and making long-needed changes to their own worldviews.

Their 2020 strategy is to continue organizing and give nominal support to the Neoliberal candidates in the name of harm reduction. They will hold their noses and vote for Joe Biden and wait their turn. I don't see a major national victory for them for at least another 10 years.

The Twilight of Neoliberalism

The declining economic fortunes of the United States for the last 20 years have done a number on the belief that free trade makes everyone richer. The amount of stuff for sale has expanded exponentially, but wages have been stagnant since the 1970s. Now two whole generations have been excluded from the financial success that has supported Neoliberal ideology. The coalition still has a lot of power, but its population base has been eroding for years, leaving behind a ruling class with lots of money but little else.

Their 2020 strategy is entirely Anti-Trump. They've been able to pull back some of their numbers that sided with Trump the first time, as it's been made clear that Trump is out to destroy the Neoliberal order. Joe Biden will shoot straight down the middle, and probably pick a Progressive VP to shore up support from the Left. Their victory depends on how effective the Left is at providing them with nominal support, and whether the Neoliberal media outlets have learned from their 2016 mistakes. They have a shaky coalition that might eke out a victory, but they won't be able to rely on the Left for anything between elections.

Conclusion

This is a fight for the future of this world. Division is here to stay until we reach a new cultural consensus, which isn't in sight at this time. If you're on the sidelines, take a look at the core values of each side and decide what aligns with your core beliefs. We need support, especially from upper-middle class white people. The Democratic party is not worth betting on anymore. We are building a truly egalitarian culture, and we are founding it on the ideals of mutual aid and universal equity. Find your local mutual aid groups and make regular donations of your money and time. We can build a better world.